大使疫情手记 (双语7) —— 疫情之下，权限之上

作者：Geoff Raby

中文：罗曼

转自朱雀艺术

前澳大利亚驻华大使、艺术收藏家、经济学家、专栏作家 Dr Geoff Raby AO 原计划于二月底返回北京，后因疫情爆发滞留悉尼。朱雀艺术特别开设【号外】专栏，连载大使的疫情手记。今日连载至第7篇。

大使疫情手记（七）

疫情之下，权限之上

也许在明天早上起床时，或是明晚上床睡觉前，总之我相信，明天全球新冠病毒感染数将破百万（注1）。这是一个惊天头条，而媒体必将对此喋喋不休。（注1：截止4月3日晚本文完成时，全球感染数尚未破百万，而译者于4月4日翻译此文时，Geoff的判断已经成真。）

目前的死亡率增长速度比感染率快得多。在连续第四天新感染率放缓的情况下，澳大利亚政府总算尝到了一些甜头，但依然保持谨慎，丝毫没有准备放宽各项限制措施的意愿。事实上，今天早上新南威尔士州警察局长宣布，封锁禁令必须再持续90天！随着日常生活陷入单调重复，在我看来，封锁生活似乎是一条望不到头的漫漫长路。

警方似乎在紧急情况下的日常管理中发挥着更大的领导作用。我本以为坏消息会由州长或卫生部门传达，比方说告知我们至少在八月初之前都不能出门，也不能去酒吧。现在看来，警察局长似乎也成为了唯一的权威，在诸如离岸邮轮上那些不幸患病的乘客到底能否下船就医这样的问题上手握大权。如果人们违反了社交距离规则，警察也会忙着当场罚款。据报道，如果被发现接待超过两人以上的顾客团体，涉事酒吧将被关闭。

大家对于到底能做什么、不能做什么一直缺乏清晰的认知。我今天一直在网上和朋友们争论，是否可以在某个地方单独见面，一起喝喝咖啡闲逛聊天。当然，这是被政府明令禁止的活动，但同时，不超过两人一起的活动又是被允许的。权威政体如此运行，以模棱两可的规范要求人们自行判断、自我审查，而大多数人往往倾向于谨言慎行，而这就是我在做的。这便是所谓的准则或规则，它们尚未通过议会成为法律。政府可能正在动用一些紧急备用权力。

尽管如此，我们需要格外小心，不要让紧急情况对人民的权利造成长期侵蚀。此时此刻，警方和所有一线人员都在实现壮举，一边帮助我们所有人生存下来，一边把疫情造成的伤害降到最低。但是，如果危急关头权利的让渡太过轻易，那么在风平浪静时，权利的收回将困难重重。

在中断了18个月之后，我今天又重新开始了一本地缘政治书籍的写作。我的出版社早已望眼欲穿，而我也承诺4月30日交稿。我今天浏览了所有相关材料，找到并打开了所有已经完成的部分，这一点令我颇为欣慰。不过可怕的是，进度要比我想象中的缓慢许多，而我已经和出版社约好截止时间了。

所以挑战已经开始，艰巨的任务就在眼前。而还有另一点让情况更加棘手，我的许多相关文献都在北京，而如今，北京成了我无法触碰的世界。

在众多流传的笑话里，今日最佳是这一则：2020年，你的垃圾桶比你出门还多！

Geoff Raby’s Pandemic Journal 7

Rights and Writing in the Emergency

By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, COVID-19 infections globally will have passed 1 million, or it might be before I go to bed tomorrow evening, but it will happen tomorrow. It will be a big deal and the media will breathlessly report this.  

The death rate is now growing much faster than the rate of infections. Our national government is seeing some encouragement in the fourth straight day of a lower rate of new infections but is careful not to encourage any hope that the restrictions will begin to be eased. In fact, this morning the NSW police commissioner announced that the lock down must continue for another 90 days! Today, now with the crushing repetitiveness of daily life, that feels to be a very long way off.

The police seem to be taking more of a leadership role in the day-to-day management of the emergency. I would have thought the Premier or health authorities would be delivering the bad news that we won’t be getting of our houses and going to the local pub until at least the start of August. The police commissioner is also the sole authority it would seem now as to whether ill, hapless, passengers on the dreadful cruise ships that have been sent away from Australian ports will be able to disembark for medical care.  

The police are also being busy fining people on the spot if they breach the social distancing rules and guidelines. Bars are reportedly being closed down if groups of more than two happen to congregate.  

A lack of clarity continues over what one can actually do, or not. I have been debating online with friends today whether it is ok to meet somewhere one-on-one and wander around chatting and drinking coffee. Government statements certainly suggest it is not, but equally it is permissible to be in a micro-group of two. Authoritarian regimes work like this. Ambiguity requires people to make a judgement, to self-censor, and most people tend to be conservative. That is what I am doing.

The guidelines or rules are just that. They haven’t been passed through parliaments and enacted into laws. The Government is probably drawing on some reserve emergency powers. 

Still, it is important to be careful not to let the emergency drive a more permanent erosion of people’s rights. The police and all emergency workers are doing remarkable things at this time to help us all survive and minimise harm, but when rights are ceded too easily to the authorities, it is often hard to recover them after the emergency has passed.

Today I have resumed work on my geopolitical book after an 18-month hiatus. My publisher is breathing down my neck and I have promised a 30 April finish. Today I went through all the files and to my relief I managed to track down and open all the work that I had done previously. To my alarm, it is a lot less than I had thought to be the case and that I had told the publisher.  

So, the challenge is on to get it done. But is made more complicated by many books and papers sitting in Beijing, which is now out of reach.  

The best joke of the day of the many circulating was, “2020 the year your rubbish bins go out more than you”!