CMC Markets 专栏- 从“投资”到“投机”,投资者正在做些什么？

日市场似乎走出一种反常行情，全球股市下滑，而美元却由强走弱；能源和铜价持续下滑，而以黄金为代表的贵金属产品却受到追捧。我们看到市场现在似乎出现与经济学原理上背道而驰的现象。这是哪般由来？似乎许多投资者开始由实业（制造业与服务业）的投资开始转向“投机”性投资。
 
从“投资”的定义上说，我们讲“投资”英文称“Investment”，实际上都是用本金投入来获取收益的盈利方式。传统意义上的投资是对股市的投资，是对于企业生产和服务能力的投资，我们称之为“实业”；然而，随之金融衍生品行业的迅速膨胀，现代化的投资逐步融入了以“投机”获利为主要目的的“交易型”投资。最近的市场行情似乎可以看出了这个苗头，当投资基金对于实业失去暂时的兴趣时，则其会选择短期的以“获利”为主要目的的投机性投资行为。结合目前的全球经济形势来看，昨日美联储再次表示其对于近期加息预期的 不确定性，但同时表明加息进程已经逐步推进，昨日的市场反映投资者对于股市的长期投资看到了暂时的瓶颈期，撤出部分资金向货币市场转移以备投资这些国家中长期投资产品。而美元由强走弱意味着市场对于美股市场的短期前景并不看好；黄金等贵金类投资商品大涨很可能是由于：第一相对价格低廉，交易者对于短期投机获利目的有更大的把握性；对于获取短期利润也是较好的选择；第二传统意义的概念上，贵金属始终为投资保值的产品，在实体商场上相对风险较小。能源与铜价的持续下行，主要是由于全球生产力尤其是中国经济的放缓导致需求降低。
 
综观全局，目前投资资金在由长期投资性产品逐步向货币和短期获利性、投机性产品转移，这些资金的转移正是在为下一轮长期投资做准备。那么由此看来，相对于美国股市，亚太地区与欧洲股市以及新兴市场的资产应该在中长期仍然是投资者会青睐的市场。而能源与生产原料型产品铜, 与能源相关的生产企业股将可能随实业生产能力的恢复而逐步恢复其正常价格区间。
 
作者：Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管
 
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